Khojand to Dushanbe - cost vs danger?

General rule: Don't ever trust a taxi driver.

While not answering your question, some general advice: Try asking someone who has nothing to gain from quoting you false prices. Try buying food/drinks/whatever somewhere and ask the vendor. Unfortunately, this does not always work out, because sometimes the locals just don't know. Generally travellers who are out on the road for some time are the most reliable source of information. (new arrivals generally pay way too much).

Anyhow, the cost of hiring the shared taxi all for your own should be exactly the sum of the price of the available seats. So if you are quoted $ 100 for a total taxi, that would normally seat 6 people, your single seat should never cost more than $ 16.

As for needing a 4wd? I've noticed that you only very rarely need 4wd. Normal cars can do a lot more than we think is reasonable in western countries : ) If locals take 2wd cars to get there, so can you.

According to Google Maps, the fastest way is to take a very indirect route (avoiding the mountains) on the M-39, a journey which will take more than 10 hours (~760 km). There appears to be a much more direct route via the M-34 that goes directly over the mountains, however, Google maps does not seem to allow for routing over it. I estimate that that direct route would take about 4 hours (it is about 400 km), however, it is on much smaller roads on steep inclines that may not even be paved.

_{Picture of the M-34 from from Wikipedia.}

Therefore, if the taxi driver does not have a 4wd, I would assume that he is going to take you on the flat 10 hour route, in which case $100 seems reasonable. If the driver has a 4wd, however, he may be able to take you on the shorter, direct route, in which case I would expect a cheaper fare.

Edit: It looks like that quick (but longer) route actually passes through Uzbekistan, so that may not be an option.

Edit 2: There are direct flights from Khujand to Dushanbe for less than $80 (it's flight number ??68).

Note: I've never been to Tajikistan, so this is just speculation on my part based on the maps.

According to all the Russian language forums I know, all people say You should not ever try to move alone (because the risk of kidnapping)! Try to form a group with other tourists, and move with them.

Other problem is the highway between Khojand (Khujand) and Dushanbe is currently under reconstruction, and there can be some traffic on it. So, maybe you will have to get the bus to the Istarawshan, and after that get a car for Dushanbe.

Try to find the bus station (Avtobusnyi vokzal - in Russian), there will be some info about intercity buses.

I have taken this route about 20 times. The current price for a taxi from Khujand to Dushanbe is from 120 to 150 Somoni (24 to 30 USD). The ride should take about 5 to 6 hours. Safety is more dependent on how cautious the driver is than the type of vehicle. You can find taxi drivers at "Abreshim" station (15 Somoni for a taxi ride from the Khujand Center) or from "Starry Avtovokzal", which is a 10 Somoni taxi ride from Khujand center. The drivers at Starry Avtovokzal are very aggresive.