Connection times, how much incentive do airlines have to be realistic?
Consider a question such as Is My Newark Connection Time Enough, where an international arrival to Newark in one terminal has a 90 minute connection from another terminal. One response I see is on the lines
obviously the airline considers the connection time sufficient or they wouldn't offer it, and anyway the airline will simply rebook if you miss the connection.
My question is whether we know how carefully the airlines consider the feasibility of connection times?
It seems to me that it might on average be possible to make a 90 minute connection at Newark, but there are a lot of specific factors that affect an individual's chances of making a connection. For example.
- US Citizens clear immigration into the US more quickly than non-US citizens, do the airlines consider citizenship when offering a connection?
- If arriving internationally you clear immigration which takes you land-side, the then need to clear security again. The delays at security vary markedly by time of day. Do airlines factor in such time-of-day delays?
- Flights vary markedly in their on-time arrival statistics. Does the airline consider the punctuality statistics when setting a connection time.
My cynical thought is that an airline actually has little incentive to be concerned about a few folks missing connections:
- You picked a nice flight with a good end-to-end schedule, you miss the connection, They already have your money, you have the stress and inconvenience.
- Planes are over-booked, a few folks missing connections actually helps the airline!
As an example a quick search for a route I use quite often, LHR-> BNA, shows this connection
London (LHR) to Nashville (BNA) — Wed, Sep 13
London (LHR) to Newark (EWR) — Wed, Sep 13 United 76 Dep: 11:40 am Arr: 3:05 pm
Layover in EWR - 1h 10m
Newark (EWR) to Nashville (BNA) — Wed, Sep 13 United 239 Dep: 4:15 pm Arr: 5:35 pm
One hour and ten minutes: surely the proportion of misses on such a connection must be very high?
Best Answer
My question is whether we know how carefully the airlines consider the feasibility of connection times?
Yes, the airlines care very much about the feasibility of connection times and they have volumes of historical data to help them determine what a 'legal' connection is. Having been in the room, it's not just passenger connections that are considered.
Otherwise the minimum connection time for any combination would be 35 minutes.
While inconvenient for the passenger, mis-connects are also a huge hassle for the airline. Passenger has to be reaccommodated, bags pulled, hotel/meals provided.
What the analysts have determined is an acceptable mis-connect rate for an operation of combination of operations.
"But there should be no acceptable mis-connect rate!" That is not realistic because the vast, vast majority of connections are easily achievable and most people will give much weight to total travel time and purposely chose the shortest connection time.
For perspective, a special MCT rule is not the only way they can address chronic issues. Padding the block time (gate to gate) is a more realistic way to cover pre and post flight issues.
For example UA76, as noted by OP, is scheduled to arrive at 1305 but for the last 11 days has arrived 20-55 minutes early.
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Minimum Connect Time (MCT) Is your airline ready?
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