Can I make my connection from Heathrow to Kings Cross? [duplicate]

I have a plane ticket arriving at Heathrow (Air Canada, so T2) at 11:05, and a LNER ticket from Kings Cross at 14:00. (I also have a ticket for the 16:00 service, just in case, but that gets in very late so I’d rather not.)

How likely am I to make my connection, and what can I do to maximize my chances?

Some details:

• I’m young, traveling alone, and generally fairly comfortable with public transit. That being said, Air Canada decided to reschedule me onto an 8 hour layover, so I might be fairly tired if I can’t sleep on my flight. I’ll have one suitcase and a small backpack.
• I’m a USA citizen, so I should be able to use the e-gates at immigration.
• This is happening in a few weeks, i.e. COVID will be a thing.

Some specific things I’m wondering about:

• How long does it typically take from the plane landing to getting off the plane, getting through immigration, and luggage showing up on the baggage claim? (I might be able to have my bag as a carry on—not sure.)
• Heathrow Express + Circle looks faster than the Piccadilly, but more expensive and more of a hassle. Should I bother?
  • TfL rail?
• How much time do I need to get from Tube platform to mainline platform at Kings Cross? How close to the departure time can I get to the platform and make it onto the train?