Where can I get definitive success rate statistics for Kilimanjaro trekking operators?

It is sad that most companies claim 98%, because there is really no truth behind those fact. If you ask them for the actual numbers most will not release them. We decided to climb with E-Trip Africa as they do put up statistics that seem a little more realistic. They claim 88-89% overall, and when I asked for actual numbers of people it calculated correctly.

When I asked them about that, they gave a real nice explanation that helped me understand how things work. The companies that are targeting budget minded travelers usually use the Marangu Route (Coca-Cola) route. This route has very bad success rates (40%-50%). Some of the reason is because you progressively gain altitude and don't "climb high and sleep low". The other theory is that people going on a budget trip might not be as serious and don't prepare enough physically, mentally, and equipment wise.

Some companies really push clients away from Marangu. We were convinced that if we were already spending a few thousand for the flight and trek, it was better to add a $300 extra to actually have a realistic chance of reaching the summit. All 5 of us made it.

Take a look at the stats on E-trip Africa website. You will see a link to them on the right hand column of the pages about Kilimanjaro.

While I can't (yet) find a central list of success rates, numerous operators boast theirs on their websites.

However, as some sites point out:

Even though outfitters and tour operators flaunt high success rates, official statistics indicate that a very high percentage of trekkers turn back before summiting Uhuru Peak. It is quite "an accomplishment" to summit the mountain. Generally, the longer one allocates the trek, the higher the success rate of reaching the top.

Most seem to be fairly similar though in their claims:

• This one boasts 96%
• GAdventures claim 96% as well
• Thomson claims 98%
• Others simply say 'one of the highest'
• E-Trip Africa has percentages for each route, by age, sex, and even diamox use
• Others point out it depends on the trail - the steeper trails are faster, but with a lower success rate

Wiki shows that there are five or six common routes, and depending on the route, the success rate changes - Machame is the one with the highest success rate, followed by Shira or Lemosho.

A great description of the routes and their chance of success is available here.

The best I can find for stats is from Team Kilimanjaro, who have a comprehensive discussion of the misleading statistics out there, and why you should choose the route you choose, and what counts as a 'success' on a climb.

• All climbers, all routes 45%
• All climbers, all 5 day routes 27%
• All climbers, all 6 day routes 44%
• All climbers, all 7 days routes 64%
• All climbers, all 8 day routes 85%
• All climbers, all 9 day routes (no data)

Source: https://www.ultimatekilimanjaro.com/days.htm

I'm trying to track down the origins of these statistics