What is the probability of "true" lost baggage (never returned to owner)?

In "true" lost baggage, I mean the loss of your baggage that is ultimately not returned to an owner and ends up in compensation.

According to the post here, the probability of the baggage being lost is 0.3%. However, this includes cases that the baggage is ultimately returned to the owner, which I assume consists of the most lost baggage occurences.

I would rather like to know how probable it is for you to lose your baggage completely. Is there any research or statistics on this area? Since the expected amount of money on compensation is ridiculously low in my humble opinion, I feel scared of this happening.

Best Answer

Also some data here: (and bonus - you may find your lost stuff ;)

Although over 99.5% of domestic airline’s checked bags are picked up at the baggage carousel, lost luggage is an unfortunate part of airline travel. The airlines conduct an extensive three-month tracing process with the remaining .5% of unclaimed bags in an effort to reunite them with their owners, resulting in an astonishingly small fraction of a percent of bags that are ultimately orphaned.

https://www.unclaimedbaggage.com/about/

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What percentage of lost luggage is found?

The good news about lost luggage is that airlines worldwide eventually recover 97% of mishandled bags. That is one of 10 surprising facts about flying with luggage that came out of a new study by international air transport technology specialist SITA.

What are the chances of getting lost luggage back?

If your bag doesn't make it to your destination with you, airlines are usually able to locate it fairly quickly and get it on the next flight there. About 97% of lost luggage is returned to its owner within 2 days, and less than 5% of all lost luggage is actually lost, aka never returned.

How long does it take for lost baggage to be found?

It can take airlines anywhere from a few hours to a month to locate your bag, and another four weeks to three months to reimburse you. In some cases, they'll offer you travel vouchers worth more than the cash they owe you, but you should make sure those aren't constrained by restrictions and blackout dates.

Sources: Stack Exchange - This article follows the attribution requirements of Stack Exchange and is licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0.

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