Why is air travel to China currently (May 2021) 4x the usual price?
For the past 15 years, round-trip economy flights from San Fransisco to Shanghai have been close to $1000-1500 per person. Currently the summer prices are between $3500 and $4500 per person. Looking at other destinations, I have not noticed any other region in the world having such a tremendous spike in the prices, but instead, average prices to other destinations around the world (e.g. Europe, the Middle East, Africa) seems lower than before, probably related to COVID-19. What explains why China's flights are currently ~4 times higher than usual?
Best Answer
There are fewer flights/itineraries.
Chinese authorities have imposed a strict policy regarding international flights with quotas and circuit-breakers ("Five Ones Policy", article on this from Chinese Wikipedia). The number of seats is also limited to 75% of ordinary capacity.
Under "Five Ones Policy", for most international routes, one airline can only operate one route from one country to Mainland China with one flight per one week.
Circuit-breakers also mean all flights from the airline (on that route) will be cancelled for two or four weeks if the number of CoVID-positive passengers on arrival reach certain numbers. Passengers booked on cancelled flights of course will have priority on subsequent resumed flights, causing overbooking (or causing companies to restrict number of available fares that can be sold in advance).
This policy is also subject to countermeasures from e.g. France and Canada (article in Chinese), because Chinese airlines gain an unfair advantage due to the number of Chinese airlines (since the restriction is nominally per airline). USDOT's ban against Chinese-operated flights last May/June was also related.
France's and USA's countermeasures were largely diplomatically resolved, although the number of flights is still extremely limited. Canada's dispute is still ongoing and has had a dramatic effect on already high ticket prices.
Not to mention, many Chinese consulates are unable to issue the necessary boarding health declaration code to many transit passengers as the required tests must be done in the country of departure of the leg to China. Some consulates impose residency requirements and refuse to issue the code to residents of a country where a direct flight is available, e.g.
Therefore Starting from November 6, the Chinese Embassy/Consulates in Germany will in principle only examine and verify the green health code with the "HS" mark or the health declaration of the passengers bound for China via direct flights from Germany to China.
http://munich.china-consulate.org/ger/miieilungen/t1828304.htm
Additionally, the demand is particularly higher now since many expats have not been able to visit home during the past year and summer vacation is coming up for international students.
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Why are international flights so expensive right now 2021?
Demand for seats is also high, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic \u2014 people who want to visit family across the country or take a long-awaited vacation are booking flights, and so are people who rescheduled trips postponed in 2020 or 2021.Why does it cost so much to fly right now?
According to IATA, the price of jet fuel has increased nearly 150% in the last year. Airlines are also facing the reality of not having enough pilots and flight attendants to run their flights, as well as higher labor costs. All of these forces have combined to create rising ticket prices.What is the cheapest month to travel to China?
High season is considered to be February, March and April. The cheapest month to fly to China is September.Will airline prices go down in fall 2021?
From September to November, ticket prices are expected to be about 15% lower than they were in fall 2019. The average trip should cost about $734. That's slightly more than in 2020, when international roundtrip airfare averaged $717 but still lower than fall 2019's $859 average.Travel to China (as a foreigner) 2022 June Update | 6/12/2022
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