Is "relatively low" flight prices plus "no fee for change" as good as it sounds?
For family reasons, I'm planning a trip from A to B. Airlines are currently not operating the route but flights are already available for the coming weeks, at less than normal prices. Airlines are offering a "safe booking commitment", with no charge for change of date in case of canceled flight (the only obvious and fair thing to do anyway). However, they will charge the price difference. For instance, British Airways states:
We’ve waived our change booking fee so you will not be charged, although you will need to pay any difference in fare.
Imagine this scenario. I book today a flight for the 25th of May. Say on the 20th of May I am told the flight is cancelled. The next available flight is the 1st of June, which was already available today (I just wanted to flight earlier). Naturally, there are less seats available on the 1st of June flight. Moreover, is closer to date. Based on how airline costs seats, that means the price should be higher. Therefore, although there would be no cost for the change itself, if I take the 1st of June flight I would need to pay much more. In other words, I lost. An alternative is to book a much later flight, say the 15th of June. By that time, prices might be closer to normal. I lose anyway. Perhaps the only way of getting the same price is for flights available on July. Too late.
My fear is based on a real possibility. Today, flights from A to B in May are four times higher than yesterday. Well, yesterday I almost bought one ticket for the 10th of May. You would say "what a shame you didn't buy it". But actually, if they cancel my flight, I would have to repay the difference! And all May tickets went up four times! So, it seems I was lucky not to buy the ticket! This is what has prompted this question.
Have you read or experienced this? I haven't found online articles discussing this risk.
Best Answer
I agree with everything that Hilmar stated in his excellent answer. Airlines are in deep trouble and the danger of bankruptcy is real. In such an event your travel booking could loose all value.
That said, any poorly managed airline can go bankrupt with little or no warning. This has happened many times before and never required a pandemic as an excuse. Its an unavoidable risk of travel and business in general.
A low cost ticket with no change fees can be a good option if you want to lock in travel but maintain flexibility for yourself. If the airline cancels the flight, that is always beyond your control and you'll have to reschedule with them regardless. However, if you don't mind waiting on hold for potentially hours to speak with their representative, this no change fee option obligates them to alter the flight dates based on your whims.
Accurately predicting if the price of alternate travel dates will go up or down is probably impossible and certainly a waste of time. In the event that you decide to change dates, you may as likely end up with a flight that costs less than the original. In which case the airline will give you the difference probably as a voucher towards a future flight.
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Do flight prices increase as you get closer?
Specifically, plane tickets usually don't get cheaper closer to the departure date. Instead, flights tend to be the most inexpensive when you book between four months and three weeks before your departure date. According to the CheapAir.com 2019 Annual Airfare Study, you can expect rates to go up after that period.What day of the week is best to book a flight?
Tuesdays and Wednesdays are the cheapest days to fly domestically. The cheapest days to depart if you're flying within the U.S. are midweek \u2014 generally Tuesday or Wednesday. For economy tickets, Tuesdays are about 24% lower than peak prices on Sundays, which translates to savings of about $85 per ticket.How do you know if a flight is a good price?
Check available tickets 8-10 weeks before your departure. If the flights aren't too booked, wait until six weeks prior. At six weeks: If the price looks good, go ahead and book. If the tickets look a little high but your flight is pretty full, buy anyway because fares will probably only go up.What day of the week are flights cheapest?
Generally, Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday are the cheapest days to fly, while Fridays and Sundays are pricier, according to travel deal site FareCompare. Leisure travelers tend to fly on the weekends, either starting their vacations on Friday or taking a long weekend Friday to Sunday.Sources: Stack Exchange - This article follows the attribution requirements of Stack Exchange and is licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0.
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