I overstayed my J1 visa due to Covid last year. Applied for ESTA and was denied--what are my chances of getting a tourist visa? [closed]

My situation: Last year I was in the US as a J1 student. My visa was valid until March 20th, with a 30-day grace period that would make my stay in the US legal until April 20th, 2020.

I had my first flight to come back home in Italy scheduled on March 15th. Unfortunately, due to the coronavirus pandemic, I had my flight cancelled. After that happened, I managed to receive an extension from my university of around 10 days (I do not remember this info exactly, and I do not know how to check it), so that I had to necessarily leave the country by April 29th or so (grace period included).

The days were going by, and my flights (as I had bought two of them) would keep getting continually rescheduled or cancelled. In the meantime, I had tried asking both my home university and my host university for help, but I would not get any. I made repeated calls to the Italian embassy and consulate, but nobody did really help me (I guess there were many people in my situation, and they did not know what to do). In the end, April 29th arrived, and I was still in the US. I called the USCIS, but they told me there was nothing they could do, as my visa had expired, and no action could be taken during the 30-day grace period. I managed to come back home on June 16th. That would amount to an overstay of around 45 days.

I have now applied for an ESTA (as an Italian citizen, I am eligible for the visa waiver Program), but I did not get an authorization; I believe it was because I rightly stated that I had overstayed my visa.

Question: I would then like to apply for a tourist visa soon. What are my chances of getting one? I am enrolled in a graduate program in my home country, so I think this may help them understand that I have no intention of illegally staying in the country—and the only time that happened was because I had no other choice.

I am very scared I will not be able to travel to the US either for tourist reasons or for school (I would like to apply for a PhD there in 2 years or so). I bet there are a lot of people in my situation. Do you know how things work in this case?

Thank you for your attention.